The Atlantic Perhaps it’s time to talk about an H5N1 pandemic. Up until last Friday afternoon, a total of 13 people in the United States had officially come down this year with avian influenza H5, also known as bird flu. A subtype of that virus, a potential pandemic pathogen called H5N1, has for months been circulating in our dairy herds, and has already killed tens of millions of birds here. The 13 human cases through last Friday were generally mild, and more important, they were all clearly linked to sickened cows or poultry. When I checked in with bird-flu experts in July, they told me that this fact was crucial. The red flag for a crisis would come only, they said, if and when the virus started showing signs of spreading from person to person.
Then came Case 14. According to the week’s-end update from the CDC, at least one more person has now been infected with an H5 virus, and this time, the patient, who is in Missouri, isn’t known to have been exposed to any ailing farm animal. In other words, the harbinger of a broader, deadly crisis may just have ratcheted a little further up the flagpole.
Whatever state of danger this implies, the CDC’s report didn’t get much play. Although the case was covered by major news outlets, it competed for attention through the weekend with stories on the war in Gaza, another ghastly high-school shooting, and tonight’s presidential debate, among many other pressing matters. When I told my husband, a historian, about the new infection, he was nonplussed. After I explained the implications—possible human-to-human transmission?!—he conceded that it “seemed bad,” then continued eating dinner. The next night, at a wedding party in a crowded bar in Brooklyn, I tried again: Was anybody else feeling spooked? No one was aware of any updates from Missouri, nor did they seem to care that much when I described the details. This is where we are with bird flu at the moment: The awkward space between watchful waiting and all-out panic mode. The risks may still be minimal, but the stakes are very high—and each new piece of information seems to make the situation only a bit less stable than it was before. Yet it’s hard to keep a solid grasp on what it means and whether it’s important.