Deaths from a handful of viruses that spill over from animals to humans are set to increase 12-fold by 2050 due to climate change and habitat encroachment, according to a new study published in the British Medical Journal.
Three of the four—filoviruses like Ebola and Marburg, SARS, and Nipah virus—are on the World Health Organization’s list of priority pathogens, noted for their potential to cause the next pandemic. But the Ebola-like Machupo virus is also a contender, the authors of the new study argue. And regardless of which pathogen ends up fueling the next global health crisis, they’re all worthy of attention, the authors maintain.
The reason: Epidemics of the viruses they focused on are set to cause a combined death toll of more than 15,000 annually by 2050, even if they don’t make an evolutionary leap that allows them to ravage the globe.
Researchers at Boston-based biotech firm Ginkgo Bioworks honed in on four viruses likely to pose a significant public health risk and endanger economic or political stability. Called zoonotic viruses, they spill over from animals to humans, who can then transmit them to other humans.